Measles, mumps and rubella surveillance
Research summary
This research combines (serial) serological survey data, vaccination coverage and modelling to identify immunity gaps and assess outbreak potential in highly vaccinated populations. The aim is to understand which age groups and geographical areas remain susceptible and how this susceptibility may change over time.
Abrams, Beutels and Hens (2014) constitutes the original methodological paper in this line of outbreak-risk research. Using Belgian mumps data, a multi-cohort model is used to identify areas with high outbreak potential and to project effective reproduction numbers, incorporating primary vaccine failure and waning immunity. In Hens et al. (2015) the multi-cohort approach is applied to measles, combining spatial serology, vaccination coverage and social-contact data. The analysis identifies the potential for resurgence, particularly during school terms, and highlights susceptibility among adolescents and young adults and the vulnerability of infants.
Abrams et al. (2016) extends the same outbreak-risk framework to rubella in Belgium, complementing the mumps and measles analyses. The study combines Belgian rubella seroprevalence data from 2006 with vaccination coverage, social-contact information and evidence on primary vaccine failure and waning immunity to assess geographical variation in outbreak potential. It also examines differences in susceptibility between males and females arising from the history of rubella vaccination in Belgium. The estimated outbreak risk was low for the period studied, while the findings emphasised the importance of maintaining high immunisation levels and surveillance.
Schenk et al. (2022) adds a Bayesian cohort analysis of Belgian serological surveys from 2002, 2006 and 2013. It identifies persistent measles immunity gaps in birth cohorts offered vaccination at suboptimal coverage during the early years of routine vaccination. Together, these studies connect the original outbreak-risk methodology with later evidence on population immunity, providing a basis for assessing targeted vaccination strategies.
Related publications
- Abrams, Beutels & Hens (2014) — Assessing Mumps Outbreak Risk in Highly Vaccinated Populations Using Spatial Seroprevalence Data. American Journal of Epidemiology, 179(8), 1006–1017. Original methodological paper.
- Hens et al. (2015) — Assessing the risk of measles resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Belgium anno 2013. Eurosurveillance, 20(1), 20998.
- Abrams et al. (2016) — Inferring rubella outbreak risk from seroprevalence data in Belgium. Vaccine, 34(50), 6187–6192.
- Schenk et al. (2022) — Identifying immunity gaps for measles using Belgian serial serology data. Vaccine, 40(26), 3676–3683.