Understanding infectious diseases through data and models
I am Steven Abrams, a biostatistician and medical statistician with research interests in infectious disease epidemiology, survival analysis, serology, mathematical and statistical modelling, and vaccine research.
At Hasselt University and the University of Antwerp, my work focuses on the development and application of statistical and mathematical methods to better understand infectious disease dynamics, immunity, vaccination, and public health decision-making.
Research
My research combines methodological developments in statistics with applications in infectious disease epidemiology and public health. Current and recent work includes:
- modelling antibody and serological data;
- infectious disease transmission and outbreak risk;
- survival and event-history analysis;
- individual heterogeneity and frailty modelling;
- vaccine effectiveness and correlates of protection;
- quantitative methods for public health decision-making.
Research highlights
Explore publications from across my research interests and publication years.
2026 The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
Whole genome sequencing precision medicine strategy to shorten treatment for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (SMARTT): a pragmatic, randomised, single-blind phase 4 trial
Infectious diseases
2026 EPIDEMICS
Population-level associations in the spread of co-circulating respiratory viruses: A multi-method statistical investigation using incidence data
2026 Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
Nonparametric estimation of the quantiles of the conditional residual lifetime distribution
Statistical methods
2026 Eurosurveillance
Informing quarantine policy for measles control in primary school and daycare settings: insights from a simulation study, Flanders, Belgium
A simulation study of quarantine strategies in primary schools and daycare settings in Flanders.
Infectious diseases
2026 PLOS ONE
Factors influencing SARS-CoV-2 IgG test sensitivity: A Bayesian analysis of seroconversion and seroreversion by time since infection, test, age and disease severity
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination · Statistical methods
2026 Archives of Public Health
Estimating the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections by jointly modelling seroprevalence, hospitalization and mortality data, February 2020-January 2021, Belgium
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2026 BMC Infectious Diseases
Decentralizing care for cutaneous leishmaniasis and other skin diseases to primary health facilities in Southern Ethiopia: What are the needs?
Infectious diseases
2026 International journal of nursing studies
Corrigendum to “Beyond staffing ratios - team demographic diversity, workforce stability, and their effects on patient safety and workforce sustainability: A multi-country analysis” [Int. J. Nurs. Stud. 181 (2026) 105570]
2026 International Journal of Nursing Studies
Beyond staffing ratios-team demographic diversity, workforce stability, and their effects on patient safety and workforce sustainability: A multi-country analysis
Clinical and public health research
2026 Dependence Modeling
Bernstein–based Nonparametric Estimation of the Cross Ratio Function under Univariate Right Censoring
Statistical methods
2026 Archives of public health
A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned
2025 Vaccine
Within-host mathematical models to study antibody kinetics after the prophylactic Ebola vaccine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Within-host mathematical models of antibody kinetics following vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Immunity and vaccination
2025 The Lancet Digital Health
Utilising the Benefit Risk Assessment of Vaccines (BRAVE) toolkit to evaluate the benefits and risks of Vaxzevria in the EU: a population-based study
A population-based application of the BRAVE toolkit to evaluate Vaxzevria in the European Union.
Immunity and vaccination
2025 Journal of Medical Virology
Systematic Molecular Influenza A/B Screening Upon Hospital Admission in Belgium, January-April 2022: Positivity Ratios and Viral Loads According to Symptomatology, Age, and Vaccination Status
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2025 BMC Medical Research Methodology
Improving the efficiency of drug resistant tuberculosis treatment trials: a time-to-event alternative marker for bacteriological response and adaptive minimization for randomization
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2025 Scientific Reports
Cracking the code of a correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection in cancer patients
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2025 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Charcoal and firewood use in urban areas of developing countries: Drivers, consequences, and the need for clean cooking solutions
Clinical and public health research
2025 Nature Communications
Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis
Infectious diseases
2025 BMC Health Services Research
Assessing the capacity of primary healthcare facilities and healthcare workers in managing diabetes and hypertension in Kisumu county, Kenya
Clinical and public health research
2025 Malaria Journal
An integrative review of the combined use of mathematical and statistical models for estimating malaria transmission parameters
Infectious diseases
2025 European Journal of Public Health
An extension of the Benefit Risk Assessment of VaccinEs toolkit to evaluate Comirnaty and Spikevax vaccination in the European Union
Immunity and vaccination
2025 South African Statistical Journal
A Bayesian mixture model accounting for individual heterogeneity in response to pathogenic infection
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2024 Journal of Theoretical Biology
Who acquires infection from whom? A sensitivity analysis of transmission dynamics during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium
Infectious diseases
2024 Cureus Journal of Medical Science
Types and Effectiveness of Community-Based Cardiovascular Disease Preventive Interventions in Reducing Alcohol Consumption: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Clinical and public health research
2024 Journal of Crohn's and colitis
The Intestinal Mucin Isoform Landscape Reveals Region- Specific Biomarker Panels for Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patient Stratification
Clinical and public health research
2024 BMC Public Health
The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022)
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2024 BMC Infectious Diseases
Predictors of moderate-to-severe side-effects following COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccination: a prospective cohort study among primary health care providers in Belgium
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2024 Expert Systems With Applications
Exploring the Pareto front of multi-objective COVID-19 mitigation policies using reinforcement learning
Infectious diseases
2024 Epidemics
Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs
Infectious diseases
2024 Statistics
Bernstein-based estimation of the cross ratio function
Statistical methods
2023 Vaccine
Within-host modeling to measure dynamics of antibody responses after natural infection or vaccination: A systematic review
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2023 BMC Infectious Diseases
The impact of national and international travel on spatio-temporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium in 2021
Infectious diseases
2023 BMC Public Health
The direct disease burden of COVID-19 in Belgium in 2020 and 2021
Infectious diseases
2023 Frontiers in Immunology
Modeling antibody dynamics following herpes zoster indicates that higher varicella-zoster virus viremia generates more VZV-specific antibodies
Immunity and vaccination
2023 European Journal of Cancer Prevention
Evolution of human papilloma virus prevalence in a highly vaccinated region in Belgium: a retrospective cohort study in Flemish women (2010-2019)
Immunity and vaccination
2023 European Heart Journal
Disparities in the non-laboratory INTERHEART risk score and its components in selected countries of Europe and sub-Saharan Africa: analysis from the SPICES multi-country project
Clinical and public health research
2023 Public Health Nutrition
Dietary outcomes of community-based cardiovascular disease preventive interventions: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Clinical and public health research
2023 Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety
A digital toolkit to contextualize and visualize the benefit and risk of COVID-19 vaccines in the European union
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2023 PLOS ONE
A Bayesian approach to estimate the probability of resistance to bedaquiline in the presence of a genomic variant
Statistical methods
2022 American Journal of Preventive Cardiology
Type and effectiveness of community-based interventions in improving knowledge related to cardiovascular diseases and risk factors: A systematic review
Clinical and public health research
2022 Frontiers in Pharmacology
The Effect of Serine Protease Inhibitors on Visceral Pain in Different Rodent Models With an Intestinal Insult
Clinical and public health research
2022 Pathogens
Surveillance for Onchocerciasis-Associated Epilepsy and OV16 IgG4 Testing of Children 6–10 Years Old Should Be Used to Identify Areas Where Onchocerciasis Elimination Programs Need Strengthening
Infectious diseases
2022 Eurosurveillance
Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 – a serial prospective cross-sectional nationwide study of residual samples, Belgium, March to October 2020
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2022 Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation
Seroconversion rate after primary vaccination with two doses of BNT162b2 versus mRNA-1273 in solid organ transplant recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Immunity and vaccination
2022 Trials
Sequencing Mycobacteria and Algorithm-determined Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment (SMARTT): a study protocol for a phase IV pragmatic randomized controlled patient management strategy trial
Infectious diseases
2022 Transplant Immunology
SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination is not associated with the induction of anti-HLA or non-HLA antibodies
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2022 Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy
Predicting mortality in intensive care unit patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae: A retrospective cohort study
Infectious diseases
2022 Journal of Nonparametric Statistics
Nonparametric estimation of risk ratios for bivariate data
Statistical methods
2022 JAC-Antimicrobial Resistance
Nationwide implementation of online communication skills training to reduce overprescribing of antibiotics: a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial in general practice
Clinical and public health research
2022 Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation
mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna): a better option than BNT162b2 (Pfizer) in kidney transplant recipients and dialysis patients?
Immunity and vaccination
2022 Malaria Journal
Modelling longitudinal binary outcomes with outcome dependent observation times: an application to a malaria cohort study
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2022 BMC Public Health
Level of cardiovascular disease knowledge, risk perception and intention towards healthy lifestyle and socioeconomic disparities among adults in vulnerable communities of Belgium and England
Clinical and public health research
2022 PLOS Computational Biology
Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data
Infectious diseases
2022 Vaccine
Identifying immunity gaps for measles using Belgian serial serology data
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2022 Breast Cancer Research and Treatment
Factors affecting inter-individual variability in endoxifen concentrations in patients with breast cancer: results from the prospective TOTAM trial
Clinical and public health research
2022 PLOS Computational Biology
Different forms of superspreading lead to different outcomes: Heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact behavior relevant for the case of SARS-CoV-2
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2022 Eurosurveillance
COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020
Infectious diseases
2022 Pathogens
Correction: Dusabimana et al. Surveillance for Onchocerciasis-Associated Epilepsy and Ov16 IgG4 Testing of Children 6–10 Years Old Should Be Used to Identify Areas Where Onchocerciasis Elimination Programs Need Strengthening. Pathogens 2022, 11 , 281
Infectious diseases
2021 Scientific Reports
Validation of the Dutch-Flemish translated ABCD questionnaire to measure cardiovascular diseases knowledge and risk perception among adults
Clinical and public health research
2021 Nature Communications
The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19
Infectious diseases
2021 Statistics
Quantiles of the conditional residual lifetime
Statistical methods
2021 Epidemics
Modelling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories
Infectious diseases
2021 Statistics in Medicine
Measuring association among censored antibody titer data
Immunity and vaccination · Statistical methods
2021 The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Immunogenicity and persistence of trivalent measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2021 PLOS ONE
Evaluation of the SARS-CoV-2 positivity ratio and upper respiratory tract viral load among asymptomatic individuals screened before hospitalization or surgery in Flanders, Belgium
Infectious diseases
2021 PLOS ONE
Epidermal growth factor as a potential prognostic and predictive biomarker of response to platinum-based chemotherapy
Clinical and public health research
2021 Preventive Medicine
Effectiveness of community-based cardiovascular disease prevention interventions to improve physical activity: A systematic review and meta-regression
Clinical and public health research
2021 Public Health Reviews
Community-Based Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Low-and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review
Clinical and public health research
2021 BMC Infectious Diseases
A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies
Infectious diseases
2020 Pathogens
Urinary N-acetyltyramine-O,β-glucuronide in persons with onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy
Infectious diseases
2020 Global Epidemiology
Trends and determinants of health facility childbirth service utilization among mothers in urban slums of Nairobi, Kenya
Clinical and public health research
2020 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Time between Symptom Onset, Hospitalisation and Recovery or Death: Statistical Analysis of Belgian COVID-19 Patients
Infectious diseases
2020 Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation
The potential of donor-derived cell-free DNA as a biomarker for rejection in kidney transplantation: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Clinical and public health research
2020 PLOS ONE
Socioeconomic and behavioral determinants of cardiovascular diseases among older adults in Belgium and France: A longitudinal analysis from the SHARE study
Clinical and public health research
2020 Pathogens
Single versus Multiple Dose Ivermectin Regimen in Onchocerciasis-Infected Persons with Epilepsy Treated with Phenobarbital: A Randomized Clinical Trial in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Infectious diseases
2020 Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Nonparametric estimation of the cross ratio function
Statistical methods
2020 Pathogens
Ivermectin Treatment Response in Onchocerca Volvulus Infected Persons with Epilepsy: A Three-Country Short Cohort Study
Infectious diseases
2020 Contemporary Clinical Trials
Infectious diseases epidemiology, quantitative methodology, and clinical research in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspective from a European country
Infectious diseases
2020 Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy
Fluoroquinolone resistance in Escherichia coli isolates after exposure to non-fluoroquinolone antibiotics: A retrospective case-control study
Infectious diseases
2020 Pathogens
Effect of Ivermectin Treatment on the Frequency of Seizures in Persons with Epilepsy Infected with Onchocerca volvulus
Infectious diseases
2020 Transplant International
Donor-derived cell-free DNA as a biomarker for rejection after kidney transplantation: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Clinical and public health research
2020 Pathogens
Comparison of Diagnostic Tests for Onchocerca volvulus in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Infectious diseases
2020 Statistics in Medicine
A general frailty model to accommodate individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of multiple infections: An application to bivariate current status data
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2019 Epidemiology and Infection
The seroprevalence of cytomegalovirus infection in Belgium anno 2002 and 2006: A comparative analysis with hepatitis a virus seroprevalence
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2019 Journal of Theoretical Biology
The impact of behavioral interventions on co-infection dynamics: An exploration of the effects of home isolation
Infectious diseases
2019 BMC Medical Research Methodology
Sample size calculation for estimating key epidemiological parameters using serological data and mathematical modelling
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination · Statistical methods
2019 The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Households or Hotspots? Defining Intervention Targets for Malaria Elimination in Ratanakiri Province, Eastern Cambodia
Infectious diseases
2019 Statistical Methods in Medical Research
Correlated gamma frailty models for bivariate survival time data
Statistical methods
2018 Eurosurveillance
Resurgence risk for measles, mumps and rubella in France in 2018 and 2020
Infectious diseases
2017 Biometrics
Parametric overdispersed frailty models for current status data
Statistical methods
2017 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
Modelling time varying heterogeneity in recurrent infection processes: an application to serological data
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination · Statistical methods
2017 Epidemiology and Infection
Estimating age-time-dependent malaria force of infection accounting for unobserved heterogeneity
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2016 Vaccine
Inferring rubella outbreak risk from seroprevalence data in Belgium
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2016 Medecine et Maladies Infectieuses
COL 2-03 - Resurgence risk for measles, mumps and rubella in France in 2016
Infectious diseases
2015 Biostatistics
Modeling individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of recurrent infections: an application to parvovirus B19
Infectious diseases · Statistical methods
2015 Eurosurveillance
Assessing the risk of measles resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Belgium anno 2013
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
2014 American Journal of Epidemiology
Assessing Mumps Outbreak Risk in Highly Vaccinated Populations Using Spatial Seroprevalence Data
Infectious diseases · Immunity and vaccination
Browse all publications · Explore research projects · Contact me
Teaching and science communication
I share statistics and infectious disease research with students, teachers, health professionals and the public. Explore workshops and educational resources, or browse conference talks and slides.
Code and reproducible research
Research code and related projects are available on GitHub. Where resources are available for an individual paper, they are linked from its publication entry.
